We all know that following favourites blindly will eventually send a punter broke but at the same time investing on the right favourite is the quickest way to consistently profit as a punter.
In last week's column we looked at the impact of starting price which clearly showed $2 chances win more than $3 chances, horses at $5 win more than runners at $6 etc with the starting price of a horse accurately reflecting the horses probability, but with betting markets framed to a figure higher than 100 percent it is impossible for a punter to finish in front long term by following any particular pricing group.
This week we look at how favourites fare at each of the metropolitan tracks in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and try to find some form factors that move favourites into long term profitability.
On average favorites win about 35% of horse races. But, that win percentage can fluctuate based on the distance, surface, class, etc. For example, favorites are more likely to win dirt races than turf races. Another thing that will obviously make a big difference in the win%. A big favorite is when a fighter has odds of -300, or wider, to win. Therefore, in terms of percentages, a big favorite means that a fighter's implied odds of winning are 75% or more. What are fight totals? Even if you add in a rebate, and you play every favorite in every race, you are going to lose money in the long run. Favorites don't pay enough for you to bet them every race and stay in the black. That does not mean you can't win if you pick and choose your spots with the favorite.
As always, this column is not about right or wrong answers – the sole purpose is education and learning from each other so the more contributions the better.
The Favourites - Jan 1, 2013- Dec 31, 2017
Period | Races | Strike Rate % | P/L on Turnover % |
1111 | 32 | -11.5 | |
1084 | 33.5 | -7.5 | |
1028 | 32.2 | -13.1 | |
918 | 32.1 | ||
1012 | 27.8 | -15.2 | |
950 | 33.1 | -1.9 | |
1088 | 31.7 | -11.8 | |
Sandown Hillside | 639 | 30 | -9.4 |
Sandown Lakeside | 455 | 29.5 | -11 |
1943 | 33.5 | -6.7 |
.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&w=376&dpr=2.6 "How")
There are a host of form factors which improve the figures at each of the tracks.
Favourites launching from barrier one are profitable at Rosehill, Caulfield and Doomben.
Flemington has the worst record for favourites but if you concentrate on staying races the figures look markedly different.
Punters are often wary of favourites on wet tracks but on the majority of metropolitan tracks they are actually profitable
Along with barriers, distance and track conditions, many other form factors influence the profitability of favourites including position in running, field size, apprentices, handicapper rating, career wins, last start winners, number of runs in a campaign, beaten favourite last start, weight and change of distance.
They are just some of the factors we will look at in the weeks ahead.
Manchester United are very much in charge of their Europa League last-32 against Real Sociedad after pulling off a 4-0 ‘statement victory' in Turin.
Talisman Bruno Fernandes put them in front in the first half as he took advantage of a mix-up between the Real Sociedad defenders and goalkeeper Alex Remiro before passing the ball home.
Fernandes doubled the Red Devils' advantage on 58 minutes as he stroked the ball home into the corner. The goal initially wasn't given as he was flagged offside, however, replays showed he was in fact onside.
.jpg?auto=format%2Ccompress&w=640 "Favorites")
In last week's column we looked at the impact of starting price which clearly showed $2 chances win more than $3 chances, horses at $5 win more than runners at $6 etc with the starting price of a horse accurately reflecting the horses probability, but with betting markets framed to a figure higher than 100 percent it is impossible for a punter to finish in front long term by following any particular pricing group.
This week we look at how favourites fare at each of the metropolitan tracks in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and try to find some form factors that move favourites into long term profitability.
On average favorites win about 35% of horse races. But, that win percentage can fluctuate based on the distance, surface, class, etc. For example, favorites are more likely to win dirt races than turf races. Another thing that will obviously make a big difference in the win%. A big favorite is when a fighter has odds of -300, or wider, to win. Therefore, in terms of percentages, a big favorite means that a fighter's implied odds of winning are 75% or more. What are fight totals? Even if you add in a rebate, and you play every favorite in every race, you are going to lose money in the long run. Favorites don't pay enough for you to bet them every race and stay in the black. That does not mean you can't win if you pick and choose your spots with the favorite.
As always, this column is not about right or wrong answers – the sole purpose is education and learning from each other so the more contributions the better.
The Favourites - Jan 1, 2013- Dec 31, 2017
Period | Races | Strike Rate % | P/L on Turnover % |
1111 | 32 | -11.5 | |
1084 | 33.5 | -7.5 | |
1028 | 32.2 | -13.1 | |
918 | 32.1 | ||
1012 | 27.8 | -15.2 | |
950 | 33.1 | -1.9 | |
1088 | 31.7 | -11.8 | |
Sandown Hillside | 639 | 30 | -9.4 |
Sandown Lakeside | 455 | 29.5 | -11 |
1943 | 33.5 | -6.7 |
There are a host of form factors which improve the figures at each of the tracks.
Favourites launching from barrier one are profitable at Rosehill, Caulfield and Doomben.
Flemington has the worst record for favourites but if you concentrate on staying races the figures look markedly different.
Punters are often wary of favourites on wet tracks but on the majority of metropolitan tracks they are actually profitable
Along with barriers, distance and track conditions, many other form factors influence the profitability of favourites including position in running, field size, apprentices, handicapper rating, career wins, last start winners, number of runs in a campaign, beaten favourite last start, weight and change of distance.
They are just some of the factors we will look at in the weeks ahead.
Manchester United are very much in charge of their Europa League last-32 against Real Sociedad after pulling off a 4-0 ‘statement victory' in Turin.
Talisman Bruno Fernandes put them in front in the first half as he took advantage of a mix-up between the Real Sociedad defenders and goalkeeper Alex Remiro before passing the ball home.
Fernandes doubled the Red Devils' advantage on 58 minutes as he stroked the ball home into the corner. The goal initially wasn't given as he was flagged offside, however, replays showed he was in fact onside.
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The second goal shed further light on just how brilliant the Portugal international has been at Man United. He's now been directly involved in 52 goals (33 goals and 19 assists) in 58 appearances for the club.
But on talkSPORT 2 commentary, Matt Holland picked out Marcus Rashford as ‘the most important player' for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men.
He said: 'He may not have scored but I think he's been the most important player in the transition from defence to attacking areas. He's the one that's got up the pitch with real pace and determination to take them on and create things.'
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Rashford did score moments later as he slid home after latching onto Fred's pass in a rapid counter-attack, with former United player Owen Hargreaves later labelling the Red Devils as ‘the best counter-attacking team in Europe'.
Daniel James made it four with a cool finish after a lung-busting run down the right wing on a night which saw 18-year-old Amad Diallo make his senior debut for the Red Devils.
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The match made a frantic start with former United man Adnan Januzaj curling wide, while Alexander Isak forced Dean Henderson into making a smart save.
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Rashford had two great opportunities to score but Fernandes made no mistake following a collision between Robin Le Normand, Igor Zubledia and goalkeeper Remiro.
How Many Odds On Favourites Win
It was all Man United from that point and they ran away with victory against the LaLiga outfit, who also have Manchester City legend David Silva and former Arsenal defender Nacho Monreal on their ranks.
Comeon casino no deposit bonus. As Holland put it at the end of the match, the result is a ‘statement victory' by Man United, who will have made the rest of the teams in the competition sit up and take notice.
